After thunders …. it didn’t rain

And there aren’t even many clouds around…

For a few months, or rather, more or less since the beginning of the year, the global crypto community has been experiencing an almost messianic wait for the next bull run. A return to the golden age of 2020/21 in which the growth in prices seemed unstoppable. The new cryptocurrencies were created in a hysterical way, for the benefit of the herd of latecomers, where, obviously, most of the deaths and injuries caused by FoMo took place.…

In support of the wait, unlikely technical analyzes have been wasted (you can make technical analysis say what you want), flaunting crosses of all types and materials, amazing supports and resistances, not to mention the shamanic studies on moving averages of any order and grade.

Coulds and mays. The network is full of coulds and mays, those who are missing are the wills. Everyone who says that this crypto could grow to amazing levels, but no one who makes a clear prediction.

The most solid forecast remains the one that trusts in the four-year halving (halving of the reward for mining) of Bitcoin which will occur around Q2 next year. However, the good soul of my teacher would have sent away with ignominy anyone who dared to appear for the statistics exam considering a trend based on 2 (two!), maximum 3 (three!) historical data to be solid. And then, even making this leap of faith, considering that the past halvings have seen a décalage in the bull run, going from 90x to 30x and then to 7x, you have to be lucky if the next one, assuming it happens, will be of the order of 1x-1.5x. Which, of course, is enviable for any investment, but it is far from the fireworks of the past.

With this, all nonsense? It’s not for sure. Happy, overjoyed, even more so, to be proven wrong by the facts with an upcoming 4%-figure bull run. But we need to keep our feet on the ground and start from the fundamentals. Cryptocurrencies are essential for the functioning of decentralized public blockchains (centralized private ones, CBDCs for example, do not need them). If blockchain technology takes hold in the reality of the various industries, then many cryptocurrencies will appreciate, but it will be a process of progressive growth, without prejudice to the always possible speculative flare-ups. It is useful to remember that the main cryptocurrencies are deflationary (monetary base decreasing over time) both by design (burning) and in operational reality (lost coin), so if there is a real use based on the blockchain, the demand will grow and the base monetary will tend to decrease, with obvious implications on prices.

Then, of course, if the Brics… but this is the subject of the post from a few weeks ago.